Eighteen countries showing the way to carbon zero

Image result for carbon emissions

Eighteen countries from developed economies have had declining carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels for at least a decade. While every nation is unique, they share some common themes that can show Australia, and the world, a viable path to reducing emissions.

Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase, with record high emissions in 2018 and further growth anticipated for 2019. This trend is linked to global economic growth, which is largely still powered by the burning of fossil fuels.

Significant reductions in the energy and carbon intensities of the global economy have not been sufficient to trigger decreases in global emissions.

But 18 countries have been doing something different. A new analysis sheds light on how they have changed their emission trajectories. There is no “silver bullet”, and every country has unique characteristics, but three elements emerge from the group: a high penetration of renewable energy in the electricity sector, a decline in energy use, and a high number of energy and climate policies in place. Something is working for these countries.

Australia was not part of the study, as its CO₂ emissions from the burning of fossil fuels remained largely stable over the study period 2005-2015 while the country’s economy grew. However, emissions of all greenhouse gases across all sectors of the economy (including land use change) declined over most of the same period, a trend that reversed in 2014 since when emissions have increased.

Why did emissions decline?

The 18 countries shown below all peaked their fossil fuel emissions no later than 2005 and had significant declines thereafter to 2015, the period covered by our study.

Changes in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion for 18 countries with declining emissions during 2005-2015. Countries are ordered by how soon their emissions peaked and began to decline. Le Quéré et al. Nature Climate Change (2019) based on data from the International Energy Agency @IEA/OECD

Uniformly, the largest contribution to emissions reductions – about 47% – was due to decreases in the fossil share of energy production, while reductions in overall energy use contributed 36%.

However, there are large differences in the relative importance of the factors that drove emissions reductions in the various countries. For instance, reduced energy use dominated emissions reductions in many countries of the European Union, whereas a more balanced spread of factors dominated in the United States, with the single largest contributor being the switch from coal to gas. Emissions reductions in Austria, Finland and Sweden were due to an increased share of non-fossil and renewable energy.

Interestingly, our analyses suggest that there is a correlation between the number of policies to promote the uptake of renewable energy and the decline in the 18 countries.

The declining emissions were not caused by the consumption of products produced elsewhere during the period examined. Earlier in the 2000s, this practice of outsourcing emissions to other countries (for example by moving manufacturing offshore) was a significant driver of emissions decline in many developed countries. But that effect has diminished.

The lasting consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global economy however did have an impact, and partially explained the reduced energy use in many countries.

How significant are these emissions declines?

Emissions declined by 2.4% per year during 2005-15 across the 18 countries.

One could argue this decline is not particularly meaningful because global fossil fuel emissions continued to grow at 2.2% per year during the same period. However, this group of countries is responsible for 28% of the global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels. That is a sizeable fraction, and if the decline continues and further intensifies it can have a significant impact.

The 18 peak-and-decline countries also played a part in the stalling of global emissions between 2014 and 2016 while the global economy continued to grow, a combination that showed, briefly and for the first time, what accelerated decarbonisation would look like. While China did not have 10 years of continuous declining emissions (and hence it was not part of the group of 18 countries), it was the biggest contributor during this stalling.

There is no guarantee that the declining trends will continue over the coming decades. In fact, our global 2018 carbon budget report showed that some of the more recent country trends are fragile and require further policy and actions to strengthen the decreases and support long-term robust decarbonisation trends.

If a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, it seems some countries have already begun walking that road. Now we all need to start running decisively.

This article originally appeared on The Conversation

Related Books

enafarzh-CNzh-TWnltlfrdehiiditjakomsfaptruesswsvthtrurvi

LATEST VIDEOS

What Is The Future Of Climate Change?
by Simon Donner
You would think with all the chatter going on about climate that we’d all have a good understanding on the elements of…
Why Marianne Williamson's Candidacy for President Is Important
Why Marianne Williamson's Candidacy for President Is Important
How do you know something exists if you never hear about it? How do you know about the truth, which is often "the other…
Would You Eat Meat Grown From Cells In A Laboratory? Here's How It Works
Would You Eat Meat Grown From Cells In A Laboratory? Here's How It Works
by Leigh Ackland
For many of us, eating a meal containing meat is a normal part of daily life. But if we dig deeper, some sobering…
Climate System “Getting Unhinged” as Massive Heat Wave Causes Record Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
by Democracy Now!
The massive heat dome that shattered all-time temperature records across much of Europe last week has settled in over…
Why We're Heading For A Climate Catastrophe
by BBC Newsnight
Scientists say the world is completely off track.
A Climate Reckoning In The Heartland
by CBS News
"A historic flood in March 2019 left much of America's heartland under water. Partiularly hard-hit were Midwestern…
What Would Happen If Antarctica Melted?
by Put Put 1
"What Would Happen If Antarctica Melted?
Dr. Peter Wadhams: Arctic Research & the Methane Risk
by UPFSI
Peter Wadhams is back on ScientistsWarning.TV with a comprehensive analysis of the reticent approach that part of the…

LATEST ARTICLES

What Is The Future Of Climate Change?
by Simon Donner
You would think with all the chatter going on about climate that we’d all have a good understanding on the elements of…
People Of Color Don’t Get Credit For Climate Concern
People Of Color Don’t Get Credit For Climate Concern
by U. Oregon
While their contributions to the climate change movement remain largely unrecognized, people of color are just as…
New Research Shows That Antarctica's Largest Floating Ice Shelf Is Highly Sensitive To Warming Of The Ocean
New Research Shows That Antarctica's Largest Floating Ice Shelf Is Highly Sensitive To Warming Of The Ocean
by Dan Lowry
Scientists have long been concerned about the potential collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution…
It'll Be Hard, But We Can Feed The World With Plant Protein
It'll Be Hard, But We Can Feed The World With Plant Protein
by Richard Trethowan
A UN report released last week found a quarter of the world’s carbon emissions come from the food chain, particularly…
Underground Water Sources For Billions Could Take More Than A Century To Respond Fully To Climate Change
Underground Water Sources For Billions Could Take More Than A Century To Respond Fully To Climate Change
by Mark O. Cuthbert, et al
Groundwater is the biggest store of accessible freshwater in the world, providing billions of people with water for…
Why Is The Australian Energy Regulator Suing Wind Farms?
Why Is The Australian Energy Regulator Suing Wind Farms?
by Samantha Hepburn
The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) is suing four of the wind farms involved in the 2016 South Australian blackout -…
Groundwater Reserves In Africa May Be More Resilient To Climate Change Than First Thought
Groundwater Reserves In Africa May Be More Resilient To Climate Change Than First Thought
by Mark O. Cuthbert and Richard Taylor
Groundwater reserves in Africa are estimated to be 20 times larger than the water stored in lakes and reservoirs above…
Australia Urgently Needs Real Sustainable Agriculture Policy
Australia Urgently Needs Real Sustainable Agriculture Policy
by InnerSelf Staff
Australia has made a global commitment to “sustainable agriculture”, an endeavour seen as increasingly crucial to…