How Computer Models Predict Where We’ll Go As Seas Rise

How Computer Models Predict Where We’ll Go As Seas Rise

A new modeling approach can help us better understand how policy decisions will influence human migration as sea levels rise across the globe.

The new study indicates that global policy decisions about greenhouse gas emissions, and a range of policy decisions that determine where people live and work in coastal areas, will determine whether people need to migrate as a result of sea level rise and where they may go.

The study also shows that best way to weigh the potential effects of these policies is to build new climate change models, computer-generated predictions of how and when global temperatures and landscapes will change.

“We’ve been looking at this problem the wrong way…”

“This paper homes in on policy as the key to managing climate change impacts,” says Elizabeth Fussell, an associate professor of population studies at Brown University’s Population Studies and Training Center. “Analyzing the effects of current and potential policies on sea-level rise can bring real data, real investigations, and real analyses to the table in political discussions that will shape our future.”

Global policy decisions will play a major role in determining not only how many people will migrate away from the coast due to climate change but also where those migrants will go, says lead author David Wrathall, an assistant professor at Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences.

“We’ve been looking at this problem the wrong way,” Wrathall says. “We’ve been asking how many people will be vulnerable to sea level rise and assuming the same number of people will migrate. In reality, policies being made today and moving forward will exert a strong influence in shaping migration. People will move in very specific ways because of these policies.”

The researchers suggest that policymakers who are seeking to understand how their decisions affect migration cannot afford to experiment on vulnerable populations in the real world with expensive and potentially dangerous policies. Instead, decision-makers can anticipate the effects of realistic policy alternatives using simulations thanks to advances in computation and modeling, taking into account a wide range of economic policies, planning decisions, infrastructure investments, and adaptation measures.

For example, Wrathall says, some current tax codes incentivize businesses to locate near ports, which could potentially put whole industries at risk in the face of rising sea levels. High interest rates could prevent some homeowners from borrowing money to protect their coastal homes, which may cause them to leave. And global decisions about the management of greenhouse gas emissions could affect how quickly the planet warms and sea levels rise.

“Modeling allows us to look at all kinds of scenarios to identify the specific policies that might work to help people migrate and anticipate the policies that cause problems,” Wrathall says.

“Whatever losses and damage are caused by sea level rise, they are human losses—so understanding how humans react to changes, and how policy drives those changes, is crucial,” Fussell says.

The paper appears in Nature Climate Change. The report comes from Fussell and 19 other members of an international research network the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center at the University of Maryland assembled. The University of Maryland and the National Science Foundation funded the research.

Original Study

About the Authors

Elizabeth Fussell is an associate professor of population studies at Brown University’s Population Studies and Training Center. Lead author David Wrathall is an assistant professor at Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences.

enafarzh-CNzh-TWdanltlfifrdeiwhihuiditjakomsnofaplptruesswsvthtrukurvi

follow InnerSelf on

facebook-icontwitter-iconrss-icon

 Get The Latest By Email

{emailcloak=off}

LATEST VIDEOS

The Rise Of Solar Power
by CNBC
Solar power is on the rise. You can see the evidence on rooftops and in the desert, where utility-scale solar plants…
World's Largest Batteries: Pumped Storage
by Practical Engineering
The vast majority of our grid-scale storage of electricity uses this clever method.
Hydrogen Fuels Rockets, But What About Power For Daily Life?
Hydrogen Fuels Rockets, But What About Power For Daily Life?
by Zhenguo Huang
Have you ever watched a space shuttle launch? The fuel used to thrust these enormous structures away from Earth’s…
Fossil Fuel Production Plans Could Push Earth off a Climate Cliff
by The Real News Network
The United Nations is beginning its climate summit in Madrid.
Big Rail Spends More on Denying Climate Change than Big Oil
by The Real News Network
A new study concludes that rail is the industry that's injected the most money into climate change denial propaganda…
Did Scientists Get Climate Change Wrong?
by Sabine Hossenfelder
Interview with Prof Tim Palmer from the University of Oxford.
The New Normal: Climate Change Poses Challenges For Minnesota Farmers
by KMSP-TV Minneapolis-St. Paul
Spring brought a deluge of rain in southern Minnesota and it never seemed to stop.
Report: Today's Kids' Health Will Be Imperiled by Climate Change
by VOA News
An international report from researchers at 35 institutions says climate change will threaten the health and quality of…

LATEST ARTICLES

Microsoft’s Moonshot Plan to Reverse Its Lifetime CO2 Emissions by 2050
Microsoft’s Moonshot Plan to Reverse Its Lifetime CO2 Emissions by 2050
by Vanessa Bates Ramirez
The alarming headlines about Australia’s bush fires over the last couple weeks have heightened the global outcry over…
A Climate-linked Financial Crisis Looms, But The Fix Isn't Up To Central Banks
A Climate-Linked Financial Crisis Looms, But The Fix Isn't Up To Central Banks
by Richard Holden
The Bank for International Settlements – the “central bank” for central banks – made headlines with a report outlining…
Paris Climate Goals May Be Beyond Reach
Paris Climate Goals May Be Beyond Reach
by Alex Kirby
Scientists find carbon dioxide is more potent than thought, meaning the Paris climate goals on cutting greenhouse gases…
Stoneflies And Mayflies Are The 'Coal Mine Canaries' Of Our Streams
Stoneflies And Mayflies Are The 'Coal Mine Canaries' Of Our Streams
by Boris Kondratieff
Experienced anglers recognize that for a trout, the ultimate “steak dinner” is a stonefly or mayfly.
Why Action On Climate Change Gets Stuck And What To Do About It
Why Action On Climate Change Gets Stuck and What To Do About It
by Matthew Hoffmann and Steven Bernstein
This erasure of one government’s climate project by its successor was only the tip of the melting iceberg.
5 Ways To Turn CO₂ From Pollution To A Valuable Product
5 Ways To Turn CO₂ From Pollution To A Valuable Product
by Ella Adlen and Cameron Hepburn
It’s far easier to avoid burning fossil fuels than it is to clean up CO₂ emissions once they’re in the Earth’s…
Predicting The Future Of The Climate Crisis
Can We Predict The Future Of The Climate Crisis?
by Robert Jennings, InnerSelf.com
Can the future be predicted? Most certainly. Can anyone or anything predict the future with any certainty?
Can Sea Water Desalination Save The World?
by CNBC
Today, one out of three people don’t have access to safe drinking water. And that’s the result of many things, but one…