2015-2016 El Niño triggered disease outbreaks across globe

2015-2016 El Niño triggered disease outbreaks across globeThe 2015-2016 El Niño event brought weather conditions that triggered regional disease outbreaks throughout the world, according to a new NASA study that is the first to comprehensively assess the public health impacts of the major climate event on a global scale.

El Niño is an irregularly recurring climate pattern characterized by warmer than usual ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which creates a ripple effect of anticipated weather changes in far-spread regions of Earth. During the 2015-2016 event, changes in precipitation, land surface temperatures and vegetation created and facilitated conditions for transmission of diseases, resulting in an uptick in reported cases for plague and hantavirus in Colorado and New Mexico, cholera in Tanzania, and dengue fever in Brazil and Southeast Asia, among others.

“The strength of this El Niño was among the top three of the last 50 years, and so the impact on weather and therefore diseases in these regions was especially pronounced,” said lead author Assaf Anyamba, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “By analyzing satellite data and modeling to track those climate anomalies, along with public health records, we were able to quantify that relationship.”

The study utilized a number of climate datasets, among them land surface temperature and vegetation data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA’s Terra satellite, and NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation datasets. The study was published Feb. 13 in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

Based on monthly outbreak data from 2002 to 2016 in Colorado and New Mexico, reported cases of plague were at their highest in 2015, while the number of hantavirus cases reached their peak in 2016. The cause of the uptick in both potentially fatal diseases was an El Niño-driven increase in rainfall and milder temperatures over the American Southwest, which spurred vegetative growth, providing more food for rodents that carry hantavirus. A resulting rodent population explosion put them in more frequent contact with humans, who contract the potentially fatal disease mostly through fecal or urine contamination. As their rodent hosts proliferated, so did plague-carrying fleas.

A continent away, in East Africa’s Tanzania, the number of reported cases for cholera in 2015 and 2016 were the second and third highest, respectively, over an 18-year period from 2000 to 2017. Cholera is a potentially deadly bacterial infection of the small intestine that spreads through fecal contamination of food and water. Increased rainfall in East Africa during the El Niño allowed for sewage to contaminate local water sources, such as untreated drinking water. “Cholera doesn’t flush out of the system quickly,” Anyamba said, “so even though it was amplified in 2015-2016, it actually continued into 2017 and 2018. We’re talking about a long-tailed, lasting peak.”

In Brazil and Southeast Asia, during the El Niño dengue fever proliferated. In Brazil the number of reported cases for the potentially deadly mosquito-borne disease in 2015 was the highest from 2000 to 2017. In Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia and Thailand, the number of reported cases, while relatively low for an El Niño year, was still higher than in neutral years. In both regions, the El Niño produced higher than normal land surface temperatures and therefore drier habitats, which drew mosquitoes into populated, urban areas containing the open water needed for laying eggs. As the air warmed, mosquitoes also grew hungrier and reached sexual maturity more quickly, resulting in an increase in mosquito bites.

Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Download this video in HD formats from NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio.

The strong relationship between El Niño events and disease outbreaks underscores the importance of existing seasonal forecasts, said Anyamba, who has been involved with such work for the past 20 years through funding from the U.S. Department of Defense. Countries where these outbreaks occur, along with the United Nations’ World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization, can utilize these early warning forecasts to take preventive measures to minimize the spread of disease. Based on the forecast, the U.S. Department of Defense does pre-deployment planning, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) takes measures to ensure the safety of imported goods.

“Knowledge of the linkages between El Niño events and these important human and animal diseases generated by this study is critical to disease control and prevention, which will also mitigate globalization,” said co-author Kenneth Linthicum, USDA center director at an entomology laboratory in Gainesville, Florida. He noted these data were used in 2016 to avert a Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa. “By vaccinating livestock, they likely prevented thousands of human cases and animal deaths.”

“This is a remarkable tool to help people prepare for impending disease events and take steps to prevent them,” said co-author William Karesh, executive vice president for New York City-based public health and environmental nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance. “Vaccinations for humans and livestock, pest control programs, removing excess stagnant water — those are some actions that countries can take to minimize the impacts. But for many countries, in particular the agriculture sectors in Africa and Asia, these climate-weather forecasts are a new tool for them, so it may take time and dedicated resources for these kinds of practices to become more utilized.”

According to Anyamba, the major benefit of these seasonal forecasts is time. “A lot of diseases, particularly mosquito-borne epidemics, have a lag time of two to three months following these weather changes,” he said. “So seasonal forecasting is actually very good, and the fact that they are updated every month means we can track conditions in different locations and prepare accordingly. It has the power to save lives.”

Authors: Samson Reiny, NASA's Earth Science News Team

This Article Originally Appeared On NASA

enafarzh-CNzh-TWdanltlfifrdeiwhihuiditjakomsnofaplptruesswsvthtrukurvi

follow InnerSelf on

facebook-icontwitter-iconrss-icon

 Get The Latest By Email

{emailcloak=off}

EVIDENCE

How Climate Change Affects Wildfires
by NBC News
NYU environmental studies professor David Kanter explains how climate change is creating the perfect conditions for…
Warning of 'Untold Human Suffering,' Over 11,000 Scientists From Around the World Declare Climate Emergency
Warning of Untold Human Suffering, Over 11,000 Scientists From Around the World Declare Climate Emergency
by Julia Conley
"Scientists have a culture of reticence when it comes to making statements like this, but the emergency is rapidly…
New Land Height Metric Raises Sea Level Rise Risk
New Land Height Metric Raises Sea Level Rise Risk
by Tim Radford
Millions of us now live in danger: we could be at risk from future high tides and winds, says a new approach to…
The Science Of Drought Is Complex But The Message On Climate Change Is Clear
The Science Of Drought Is Complex But The Message On Climate Change Is Clear
by Ben Henley, et al
The issue of whether Australia’s current drought is caused by climate change has been seized on by some media…
Understanding Natural Climate Cycles
by NOVA PBS
The climate has changed on a schedule for millennia.
"Climate Predictions and Projections" by Jim Hurrell (Climate Change Symposium)
by Jim Hurrell
Professor Jim Hurrell presents "Climate Predictions and Projections in the Coming Decades: Uncertainty due to Natural…
Understanding Climate Change Science On Oceans And The Cryosphere
by CBC Nova Scotia
The United Nations panel dedicated to reviewing the science of climate change recently released a dense new report…
Where's The Proof In Science?
Where's The Proof In Science?
by Geraint Lewis
One word is rarely spoken or printed in science and that word is “proof”. In fact, science has little to do with…

LATEST VIDEOS

300 Million Face Severe Risk of Climate-Fueled Coastal Flooding by 2050
by Democracy Now!
As a shocking new report finds that many coastal cities will be flooded by rising sea levels by 2050, Chile’s President…
Climate Warning: California Continues To Burn, Data Estimates Of Global Flooding
by MSNBC
Ben Strauss, CEO and Chief Scientist of Climate Central joins MTP Daily to discuss alarming new information about…
Stanford Climate Solutions
by Stanford
Climate change has brought us to a defining moment in human history.
Buying Renewable Energy From Your Neighbor
by NBC News
Brooklyn Microgrid, a project of parent company LO3 Energy, is looking to disrupt the more than 100-year-old energy…
Debate Over Pipelines Clouds Concern For Climate Change
by Global News
Climate experts are warning that Canada shouldn't ignore the wildfire crisis in California
How Climate Change Affects Wildfires
by NBC News
NYU environmental studies professor David Kanter explains how climate change is creating the perfect conditions for…
Rice Bowl Of Malaysia Threatened By Climate Change
by The Star Online
Kedah is known as the country’s “Rice Bowl,” and it is especially suitable for the growing of the grain.
Maine Cow's Seaweed Diet Research Could Help Climate Change
by News Center Maine
Research in Maine will measure the methane released by cows who have been fed a seaweed diet.

LATEST ARTICLES

Why The Global Climate Treaty Is Not Working
Why The Global Climate Treaty Is Not Working
by Tim Radford
Three out of four nations have yet to start to honour the global climate treaty. The world waits, the seas go on rising…
Why Taxes Are Better Than Bans For Keeping Homeowners From Rebuilding In Fire-plagued Areas
Why Taxes Are Better Than Bans For Keeping Homeowners From Rebuilding In Fire-plagued Areas
by Alexander Smith
Almost 200,000 Californians have been ordered to evacuate as ferocious winds drove several wildfires near Los Angeles,…
How Will 20 Years Of Houston’s Growth Affect Flooding?
How Will 20 Years Of Houston’s Growth Affect Flooding?
by InnerSelf Staff
A new way to show exactly how much the city of Houston has changed in the last two decades gives a dramatic visual…
Why Australia Could Fall Apart Under Climate Change
Why Australia Could Fall Apart Under Climate Change
by Ross Garnaut
Four years ago in December 2015, every member of the United Nations met in Paris and agreed to hold global temperature…
How Greenhouse Gases Drive Australia's Bushfires
How Greenhouse Gases Drive Australia's Bushfires
by Andrew Burgess
Australia’s bushfires are feeding on heat from the climate change happening in the tropics, but its government doesn’t…
How Children Born Now Face Multiple Climate Health Risks
How Children Born Now Face Multiple Climate Health Risks
by Tim Radford
Multiple climate health risks threaten today’s babies. They may grow up hungrier, more diseased and facing more…
This Is What Australia's Growing Cities Need To Do To Avoid Running Dry
This Is What Australia's Growing Cities Need To Do To Avoid Running Dry
by Ian Wright
The increasing thirst of Australia’s biggest cities routinely exceeds our capacity to rely on rainfall for drinking…
Evangelicals In Brazil See Abuse Of God's Earth As A Sin – But Will They Fight To Save The Amazon?
Evangelicals In Brazil See Abuse Of God's Earth As A Sin – But Will They Fight To Save The Amazon?
by Amy Erica Smith
When the Brazilian city of São Paulo abruptly went dark at midday on Aug. 19, there was talk of the Apocalypse – not…